Senior Advisor, Ridership Forecasting and Analysis

Metrolinx is connecting communities across the Greater Golden Horseshoe. Metrolinx operates GO Transit and UP Express, as well as the PRESTO fare payment system. We are also building new and improved rapid transit, including GO Expansion, Light Rail Transit routes, and major expansions to Toronto’s subway system, to get people where they need to go, better, faster and easier. Metrolinx is an agency of the Government of Ontario.

At Metrolinx, equity, diversity and inclusion are essential to living our values of serving with passion, thinking forward and playing as a team.

Transit Strategy and Insights works with teams across Metrolinx to provide the analysis, insights and strategic advice needed to develop transit projects and support investment decisions. We use forecasting, modelling, market insights and strategic analysis to understand customer and travel needs, evaluate opportunities and options, and help projects evolve from early ideas through development and delivery. Working across Metrolinx’s transit portfolios, we turn complex data and evidence into practical insights and advice that help shape better transit investments.

The Transit Strategy and Insights team is seeking a Senior Advisor, Ridership Forecasting and Analysis to develop credible ridership, revenue, and benefit forecasts for major rail service and infrastructure investments in the 5-10 year and beyond horizon. The Senior Advisor will lead the application of forecasting models and analysis tools, interpret results, and identify the key drivers of success and risk for different investment options. This is an exciting and fast-paced role where you will be responsible for building and testing scenarios, challenging results, explaining uncertainty and turning complex model outputs into practical insights and advice for investment decisions.

What will I be doing?

Applied forecasting and scenario development

• Apply network-based travel demand models, elasticity-based models, and other analytical tools to forecast ridership, revenue, benefits, and travel behaviour for proposed GO service and infrastructure investments in the five-to-ten-year and longer-term planning horizons.

• Develop, code, and test scenarios that reflect future rail services, rapid transit networks, station concepts, land use and development, fares, station access conditions, and other assumptions relevant to the investment being evaluated.

• Prepare model inputs and translate service plans into model-ready network coding, including routes, headways, stopping patterns, stations, transfer opportunities, and forecast years.

Forecast validation and quality assurance

• Perform rigorous quality checks on model inputs and outputs, including network coding, service assumptions, station boardings and alightings, transfers, origin-destination flows, capacity, and unexpected changes between scenarios.

• Validate, benchmark, and sense-check forecasts against observed ridership, fare-payment data, household travel survey data, comparable projects, historical trends, market potential, and known changes in travel behaviour.

• Investigate unexpected results, identify likely causes, determine whether models, assumptions, or inputs require adjustment, and document any post-processing methods, limitations, and remaining uncertainty.

• Assess uncertainty through sensitivity testing, benchmarking, comparison of methods, and forecast ranges rather than presenting a single result without context.

Investment insights and decision support

• Interpret how service frequency, travel time, transfers, station access, land use, network changes, and operating assumptions influence ridership, revenue, customer outcomes, and the relative performance of investment options.

• Extract and analyze station-level demand, line-level demand, origin-destination matrices, transfer volumes, capacity utilization, and changes by travel market or time period.

• Translate modelling findings into clear technical documentation, concise tables, visualizations, briefing materials, and decision-ready advice for planners, project teams, and senior decision-makers.

Tools, methods, and continuous improvement

• Improve forecasting tools, methods, and repeatable workflows using Excel, Python, ArcGIS, or other analytical tools, with an emphasis on reducing manual effort, strengthening quality controls, and making methods maintainable by the broader team.

• Share methods, assumptions, and lessons learned with technical and non-technical partners to improve the consistent development, use, and communication of forecasts.

What Skills and Qualifications Do I Need?

Education and forecasting experience

• Completion of a degree in transportation engineering, civil engineering, planning, geography, mathematics, data science, economics, or a related discipline, or an equivalent combination of education, training, and experience. A postgraduate degree is an asset but is not required.

• Demonstrated progressive, hands-on experience in applied demand or market forecasting. Experience in travel demand modelling, transit ridership forecasting, or transportation network analysis for passenger rail, rapid transit, or multimodal regional networks is preferred.

Modelling and analytical capability

• Practical experience with network-based travel demand modelling tools. Experience with EMME is strongly preferred, while experience with Cube, TransCAD, VISUM, or a comparable platform is also an asset.

• Strong understanding of forecasting concepts, including scenario development, network coding, transit assignment, origin-destination matrices, calibration, validation, sensitivity testing, and interpretation of model outputs.

• Experience assessing transit service changes, new stations, extensions, frequency changes, stopping patterns, transfers, station access, and capacity constraints is a strong asset.

• Proficiency with analytical tools such as Python, R, SQL, advanced Excel, Power BI, ArcGIS, or other geographic information systems to prepare inputs, process outputs, and automate repeatable analysis.

Quality assurance and analytical judgement

• Demonstrated ability to identify modelling errors or unreasonable results, trace them to their source, determine appropriate corrective action, and clearly explain any remaining limitations.

• Experience using observed data to validate or benchmark forecasts, including ridership, fare-payment, household travel survey, land use, market, or comparable transportation datasets.

• Ability to assess uncertainty, distinguish supported findings from assumptions, and determine the appropriate use and level of confidence for a forecast.

Communication and independent delivery

• Ability to translate technical results into clear, decision-ready advice for planners, project teams, senior leaders, and non-technical partners.

• Ability to independently lead complex forecasting assignments that assess infrastructure and service investment options, collaborate with technical and non-technical partners, and deliver accurate work within competing timelines.

Don’t Meet Every Requirement? 

If you’re excited about working with Metrolinx but your past experience doesn’t quite align with every qualification of this posting, we encourage you to apply. You just might be the right candidate for this or other roles. We are always looking for great talent to join our team.

We invite all interested individuals to apply and encourage applications from members of equity-deserving communities, including those who identify as Indigenous, Black, racialized, women, people with disabilities, and people with diverse gender identities, expressions and sexual orientations.

Accommodation:
Metrolinx is an equal opportunity employer and committed to a diverse and inclusive workforce. We are also committed to offering reasonable accommodation to job applicants in accordance with applicable legislation. If you require assistance or an accommodation at any point during the hiring process, please contact us at: 416-202-5601 or email hr.recruitment@metrolinx.com.

Application Process:

All applicants must be legally entitled to work in Canada. Metrolinx will be using email to communicate with you for all job competitions. It is your responsibility to include an updated email address that is checked daily and accepts emails from unknown users. As we send time-sensitive correspondence, we recommend that you check your email regularly. If no response is received, we will assume you are no longer interested in pursuing the opportunity. Please be advised that a Criminal Record Check may be required of the successful candidate.

For Internal applicants, with the recent implementation of the Internal Mobility Policy, the internal recruitment process has changed for non-union roles. Candidates must be in their current role for 12 months prior to applying for another role and each applicant must be in good standing (not participating in a Performance Improvement Plan). Please review all provisions of the policy before submitting your application.

Should it be determined that any background information provided is misleading, inaccurate or incorrect, Metrolinx reserves the right to discontinue with the consideration of your application.

We thank all applicants for their interest, however, only those selected for further consideration will be contacted.

WE ARE AN EQUITABLE AND INCLUSIVE EMPLOYER.

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